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Vers un protocole de Copenhague pour remplacer Kyoto ?

Les Etats Unis de Barack Obama pourraient s’engager

Article publié le 13 mars 2009

Vers un protocole de Copenhague pour remplacer Kyoto ?

En Europe à Copenhague, des scientifiques s’alarment des effets probables du réchauffement climatique, irréversibles ? Une conférence s’y tenait pour préparer celle de Décembre qui pour objectif de trouver un successeur au protocole de Kyoto qui s’achève en 2012.

Les 3 000 scientifiques présents lors de cette conférence ont dressé un bilan extrêmement pessimiste, considérant que nous seulement les conséquences du réchauffement climatique pourrait-être irréversibles mais qu’en plus elles seraient encore plus importantes que celles prévues dans le pire des scénarios du rapport du GIEC 2007. Ainsi, l’élévation du niveau de la mer serait de 50 à 100 cm d’ici la fin du siècle (18 à 58 cm dans le rapport du GIEC) en raison de la fonte des glaces polaires. On imagine aisément l’impact environnemental, social et économique possible d’un tel phénomène. D’après les rapporteurs de la conférence, les tendances actuelles auraient tendance à se confirmer, voir à s’accélérer.

En parallèle, le future n’est peut-être pas aussi alarmant que ce que laisse penser les scientifiques de cette conférence. En effet, le président étatsunien, Barak Obama s’est déclaré très favorable pour un traité sur les gaz à effet de serre en compagnie du secrétaire Général de l’ONU, Ban Ki-Moon. Ce dernier a déclaré "Avec le leadership des États-Unis, et en partenariat avec les Nations Unies, nous pouvons réaliser un accord sur le changement climatique que toutes les nations peuvent appuyer". La conférence de Copenhague en décembre 2009 risque d’adopter un autre ton que les précédentes tentatives, les réticences américaines avaient été un frein important pour le protocole de Kyoto (d’abord signé mais non ratifié par Clinton, mais remis en cause sous l’ère G.W. Bush). Les Etats-Unis étant le premier émetteur mondial de GES, la mesure en avait perdu de sa puissance et de sa crédibilité. A l’instar de Joseph Stiglitz et Nicholas Stern ou de la Région Poitou-Charente, les deux hommes se sont prononcés pour une relance privilégiant l’économie verte. Un changement de cap pourrait être très favorable à la signature d’un accord à Copenhague.

Pourtant, bien que le président considère la question du changement climatique comme existentielle, la population américaine reste réticente. D’après une étude relayée par l’AFP, 41 % pense que la gravité du changement climatique est exagéré. Le chiffre est le plus bas enregistré ces dernières années aux États-Unis... Dommage collatéral de la crise financière ? En tous cas, cette étude fait apparaître qu’il s’agit de la dernière préoccupation environnementale de la population, bien après la qualité de l’eau ou la protection des animaux... Les dernières annoncent des scientifiques, très alarmistes (voir catastrophistes ?) ne devraient pas changer ce résultat. Ce scepticisme ambiant pourra-t-il remettre en cause l’engagement oral que vient de prendre Barack Obama lors de sa rencontre avec Ban Ki-Moon ?

Réponse en décembre !


Politique Gaz à effet de serre Réchauffement climatique Etats Unis

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